BIOLOGICS AND BIOSIMILARS
Biologics are predicted to comprise more than a quarter of the
pharmaceutical market by 202023.
With their success, the industry’s
biggest biologics face revenue
threats from biosimilars and another patent cliff24.
Lack of affordability and access to
biologics are driving tailwinds for
biosimilars, especially in emerging
markets. In the European Union
(EU), countries are seeing considerable cost savings with biosimilars, even when market share
is low25. Typically, biosimilars are
around 30 percent less expensive.
The highest impact in US biosimilar sales is expected in the next
two years, with an estimated 25 to
35 biosimilars expected to be on
the US market by 202026. However,
there are headwinds in the United
States without a clear regulatory
The Asia-Pacific region has more
biosimilars in development than
anywhere else in the world, led by
China (Figure 3). China has the
potential to become the frontier
market for biosimilar drugs27.
The growth of biosimilars could
push the industry into an innovative phase, even the potential for
increased use of biologics28.
Improvements are being made
in the manufacturing techniques
used to produce biosimilars. We
could see biosimilar manufactur-
ing representing 10% or more of
some companies’ global biomanu-
facturing capacity in the next few
Global generic drug sales are
expected to make up 29.2% of the
total pharmaceutical sales worldwide in 2022, compared to approximately 28 in 2017. Emerging
markets and the United States will
drive demand for generics as they
continue to cut health care costs30.
Generics now make up more than
80% of the volume of drugs dispensed around the world, and that
percentage will continue to grow
as more drugs lose patent protection. Many of the bigger products
coming off patent are biologics.
Figure 2. Three-year rolling average returns on late-stage portfolio, 2010-2017
Source: A new future for R&D? Measuring the return from pharmaceutical innovation, Deloitte Centre for Health Solutions, 2017